The tensions surrounding the verdict of the Rivers election Tribunal has just eased ditto briefly after the tribunal presiding judge announced sonorously that the process of the elections was deeply flawed. He charged INEC to re conduct the elections within 90 days. Camp of the indefatigable APC leader and motivator in Rivers state, His Excellency the Right Honorable Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi was thrown into jubilation. No doubt the ministerial nominee must be feeling very happy right now as all his worries are dissipating one after the other. On the other hand, the governor of the state Wike must be wondering now how to wriggle out of this misfortune. From all indications, a rerun is imminent, whether Wike appeals or not. The question now is who will carry the day? Most people especially members of the opposition party the PDP are upbeat that Wike will carry the day but there are undeniable facts that exposes that optimism to be far fetched. Very clearly, Dakuku Peterside will not only win but will have a landslide victory. Lets look closely at these reasons.
1, PDP and Jonathan are no longer at the center.
Many people are making the mistake of overlooking this all important fact. They fail to understand that Rivers politics is always in tune with the party at the helm of affairs at the federal level. There is no way Wike and his cohorts will expect any kind of support or even sympathy from the Police or Military or even INEC as all these institutions are going to be neutral now and will quickly deal with any deception from Wike and or PDP. Infact, it is safe to say that these federal organs will be at the beak and call of APC. Many will argue that Buhari will not allow the kind of brigandage under Jonathan to happen in Rivers but they fail to understand that Buhari is determined to have Rivers and Akwaibom in the kitty of APC. In a nut shell federal might is now with APC!
2, Doggedness of Amaechi.
Many who do not know Amaechi personally make the mistake of overlooking his doggedness but it is on record that Amaechi has never lost any political battle! History favors him and he will once again deploy his magic wand that swept Jonathan out of power in Rivers state. For confirmation check out the list of his current political battles.
a, In spite of the substitution of his name in 2007 he won in court and went ahead to reclaim his mandate.
b, He won the governors forum election inspite of jonathan and even when Jonathan succeeded in polarizing the forum, eventually at the end of Jonathan tenure even former governor Godswill Akpabio admitted he won
c, He clearly sent Jonathan packing from Aso Rock
d, Inspite of Wikes machinations, he was given a hero's reception and screened by the senate.
e, Through his doggedness the election of Wike has just been annulled.
Love him or hate him, Amaechi is a political legend.
3, The Upland/Riverine dichotomy.
In Rivers state, there is a gentlemanly agreement between these two political blocks. Unfortunately,for Wike , he is coming to replace another man from the Upland, Amaechi. Fortnately for APC, Peterside is from the Riverine area and by this agreement Peterside has the upperhand.Some people will argue that this is not a strong point as it did not improve Petersides chances before but they forget that PDP was still in power then and Wikes thuggery was deployed with federal might to diminish this important issue. Now that Wike cannot count on the federal support,Amaechi and Peterside will play this sentiment up to their advantage.
4, Wike cannot count on Patience Jonathan support.
There is no doubt that the former first lady threw her weight behind Wike with all its appurtenances and what a weight! Then she could order generals around and even the IG of police was scared of her but today none of those things obtains anymore. She is more concerned about protecting her alleged ill gotten wealth than coming out openly to support Wike.
5, Alleged plan by EFCC to arrest Wike.
It was the APC in Rivers state that started the rumor, when they claimed that he will run away immediately he hands over power to the speaker of the house in preparation for the rerun. He will immediately loose his immunity and reliable sources say a dossier about his stewardship when he held sway as minister of education and also supervised the ministry at a time is with the EFCC. All the EfCC is waiting for is for him to step down and they will swoop in on him. If this happens, it will completely destroy his already battered image and kill his chances of being elected.
6, Rivers people love Dakuku
It is not doubtful at all! Most Rivers people especially those in the riverine areas totally adore Dakuku. Wike was totally aware of this fact and that was why he had to deploy thugs and security agents to compromise the elections. Now that APC controls the center, watch as Rivers people will show him love at the polls.
And finally, Amaechi, APC and Peterside has the psychological advantage. They have been winning so far and it is expected that they go on winning!
